US Minuteman III missile replacement surpasses $96 billion budget, triggering Pentagon scrutiny.
Source Reuters, 19 Jan 2024 (Newspyper) The replacement project for the Minuteman III, the ground-based U.S. nuclear arsenal, has surpassed its initial budget of $95.8 billion, attributing the overruns to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation, according to the Air Force’s announcement on Thursday. Andrew Hunter, the assistant secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, informed Congress that the program, overseen by Northrop Grumman Corp, has exceeded the pre-pandemic cost estimate by at least 37%.
The program, named Sentinel, has faced challenges, including changes such as the enlargement of silos and the adoption of more robust materials, leading to increased costs. As a result, the total program cost has now surged beyond $131 billion, with the potential for further growth pending a review by the U.S. Secretary of Defense, expected to conclude by the summer. Despite cost overruns being a common occurrence in the Department of Defense, the replacement of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) proves particularly costly.
The Minuteman missile network constitutes one part of the nuclear triad, alongside nuclear-tipped ground-based ICBMs, nuclear-capable bomber aircraft, and submarine-launched nuclear arms. Andrew Hunter acknowledged the challenge, stating, “It’s been over 70 years since we did the ground piece of this. We didn’t estimate it well.” The escalation of costs has triggered the Nunn-McCurdy Act, a 1982 law compelling the Pentagon to justify to Congress the significance of a program when unit acquisition costs exceed 25% of the baseline estimate.
The financial strain is most pronounced in the modernization efforts for the 450 missile silos and their command infrastructure, involving the installation of 7,500 miles of new cables. The program encompasses various components, including trucks, training, command buildings, and the production of 659 missiles. Hunter emphasized that the missiles themselves are not the primary cause of the cost overrun.
The Sentinel program, with its multiple phases encompassing development, design, and procurement, faced challenges in the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase. In 2020, Northrop secured a $13.3 billion portion for the EMD contract, aimed at designing, testing, evaluating, and advancing the program. Over time, specifications expanded, changes occurred within silos, and costs rose due to new systems with increased power and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning demands, as highlighted by an anonymous Air Force official.
The complexity is accentuated by the magnification of any small change within the 450 missile silos. Northrop Grumman expressed commitment to supporting the Air Force as it reassesses and updates acquisition cost forecasts for future phases, encompassing construction projects, production, and deployment of the weapon system.
Estimates from the $13.3 billion EMD phase indicate that the subsequent procurement phase is poised to exceed the $61 billion initially contemplated under the $95.8 billion program. Procurement activities are anticipated to commence in the late 2020s. Northrop, upon winning the contract in 2020, pledged to deliver a modern and fully integrated weapon system to meet the Air Force’s schedule of initial operational capability by 2029.
Despite the challenges, the importance of the Sentinel program for the future of the U.S. nuclear deterrent is emphasized by Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. He expressed a commitment to conducting rigorous oversight and ensuring that the necessary changes are implemented to address the cost overruns. Andrew Hunter affirmed that the program will continue execution during the Nunn-McCurdy review, with potential adjustments contingent on the results of the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s assessment.
