Assessing the New Hampshire Primary Results and the Potential for a Biden Rematch
In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump emerged victorious in the New Hampshire Primary, solidifying his position as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. The state, known for its independent voters and moderate tradition, seemed like a potential challenge for Trump, but he overcame these hurdles with ease. This win marks a significant milestone, as no presidential candidate has ever won the first two contests on the primary nomination calendar and failed to become the party’s general election nominee.
Trump’s success in New Hampshire can be attributed to the unwavering support of his base, which provides him with a structural advantage that few non-incumbents enjoy. Rather than needing to persuade new voters, Trump only needs to ensure that his existing supporters turn out. According to AP VoteCast, only about half of New Hampshire Republican voters identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and a similar percentage disagrees with Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.
However, even in victory, there are warning signs for Trump’s potential in the general election. The primary results revealed that Trump struggled to win key groups of swing voters. His opponent, Nikki Haley, outperformed him among primary voters who identify as moderates and independents, as well as those with a college degree. Additionally, about half of New Hampshire Republican primary voters expressed concerns that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, according to AP VoteCast.
A significant portion of Republican primary voters, approximately 4 in 10, also believe that Trump may have broken the law about the 2020 election or his involvement in the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. While these legal troubles may have united core Republican voters in recent months, they could pose challenges in a broader general election context.
Trump is currently facing 91 felony counts across four criminal trials, and his court schedule is strategically set to keep legal issues in the spotlight. The federal trial over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election is tentatively scheduled to begin on March 4, just before Super Tuesday. These legal challenges may prove to be a liability with a more diverse set of general election voters.
Despite Trump’s victory, there are signs of restiveness among voters for both him and President Joe Biden. In the general election context, Trump’s inability to secure key swing voter groups raises questions about his electability. On the Democratic side, while Biden did not officially participate in the New Hampshire Primary, he won through a robust write-in campaign. This victory is not binding for convention delegates but signifies a level of support for the current president.
Approximately 8 in 10 Democrats approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, indicating a positive sign for the incumbent president. However, there are warnings in the results as well, with about half of Democrats expressing concerns about Biden’s age (81 years) and disapproving of his handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to AP VoteCast.
Nikki Haley’s loss in the primary represents a setback for anti-Trump forces within the Republican Party. Despite getting the head-to-head contest they had been calling for, Haley’s defeat suggests that challenging Trump within the party remains an uphill battle. However, Haley has indicated that she will stay in the race, positioning herself as a vehicle for anti-Trump forces who hope legal problems or a health emergency might force Trump out of the race.
As the candidates look ahead, Trump’s glide path to a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination seems relatively unobstructed. However, the general election terrain may present new challenges, and the road ahead is uncertain. For now, Trump’s triumph in New Hampshire has set the stage for a potential rematch with Biden, creating a political landscape that many voters say they do not want but seem poised to witness.
Evan Archer, a seasoned journalist with an insatiable curiosity for unraveling the complexities of global affairs, stands at the forefront of contemporary world news. Born with an innate passion for storytelling, Archer has dedicated his career to shedding light on the intricate tapestry of international events, navigating the ever-evolving landscape of geopolitical dynamics.
